Survivor 41: Final 7 Power Rankings

Once in a while, we get an episode that truly mashes together everything we love about Survivor. Episode 10 of this season was that and then some — one of my favorite episodes in recent memory.

I loved how we got to really hear the inner turmoil of members of the Black alliance, specifically Shan and Deshawn as they contemplated wanting to do what was best for them to win the game individually while also knowing what they represent to the Black community and wanting to stay united as a show of strength to everyone watching, particularly seeing how hard that community has been hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. There was so much emotional gravity to these moments, and it really showed how much pressure is on these players beyond the game itself.

We also had the moments between Shan and Ricard, showing their mutual respect for each other while both knowing and their deep friendship built over the course of the game while simultaneously knowing they would have to go after each other soon. And of course, there was Liana, who showed that her bond with Shan was more important to her than her own chances of winning the game. It all made for truly compelling television.

The strategic gameplay was strong, and we got to see Ricard make his big move and Erika really blossom in dictating where the votes went eventually went. It was a perfect exit for Shan, as while we knew by the time that votes began to be read that it was her going home, that period of the vote and then re-vote let the gravity of the situation, which had been building throughout the entire episode, sink in. For so long, it had seemed unfathomable. But here we were, watching the mighty Shan, the biggest character of the season and one of the most remarkable people we’ve seen on this show, meet her downfall.

It felt like the climax of the season, but there are still seven people left. Where do we go from here? Here are my power rankings for the players most likely to win the game post-Shan.

7. Heather

All in all, a pretty good week for Heather! Does she have a chance at winning? No, of course not.

But after this episode, Heather feels basically locked into 3rd place in the game as a zero-vote finalist.

Outside of being the biggest threat remaining in the game and someone that appeared to be difficult to take out because of her immunity idol, Shan was the only person who seemed to be targeting Heather in the game.

The biggest threats to Heather going the distance were Shan making a move to take her out as an easy vote and (somewhat related) the Black players managing to stick together to reach the Final 4. Now, neither of those things will happen.

Heather’s closest ally in Erika survived the vote and put herself in an excellent position moving forward. The better the chance of Erika making it to the end, the better the chance Heather will join her. Then again, who doesn’t want to take Heather to the end? We know Deshawn does, but you’d have to imagine Heather is the one person that everyone remaining wants to sit next to at the end. Even for the people that haven’t worked with Heather (Xander/Liana), Heather might be the only person they can beat at the end.

The only possible ways I can see Heather getting voted off are Heather falling victim to a vote split should Xander be targeted and have a successful idol play, and if all of the guys grouped together in a self-preservation move, recognizing that otherwise, they’d all be turning against each other.

Also, let’s give Heather a bit of credit for being in on the conversation that got Danny on board to vote out Shan and for being on the right side of blindsides in back-to-back episodes.

6. Liana

It was a tough episode for Liana, who was the only person not involved in the blindside that sent her closest ally packing.

One could argue that this was a good thing for Liana because her loyalty to Shan had reached a point where she appeared unwilling to ever betray Shan, even if that meant giving up her chance to win the game. I’m not in a position to judge that decision from Liana as it goes beyond the game, but now that Shan is gone, where does this leave her?

Clearly, she’s very upset with Danny and Deshawn and is probably still against working with Xander. I’d imagine that she’ll still feel most loyal to Ricard, even though he was the person orchestrating Shan’s blindside. It was a move that made more sense for Ricard to make than Danny and Deshawn, and Shan seemed to respect it from Ricard.

She could also still choose to continue working with Danny and Deshawn or try to figure something out with Erika and Heather, although she really hasn’t worked with them at all before.

I don’t think anyone will be rushing to target Liana now, or possibly ever (strong fire-making odds here), but it doesn’t seem like she could win a jury vote. Shan could vote for her if Ricard is voted out, but the Yase members won’t, and she still hasn’t had a strong strategic play. That’s what she needs, but how is Liana going to be the one spearheading any decisions at this point?

Ricard is already going to be the biggest target, so no individual person is going to get credit for that move (plus, I think she’s going to stay aligned with Ricard). Her best move is probably trying to get Ricard/Heather/Erika on board with taking out Deshawn. That needs to be seen as her move. Can it be seen that way? I don’t know.

5. Xander

Ladies and gentlemen, he did it again. Xander has made it through another vote without using either his idol or extra vote and is now the only person left in the game with any advantages at all.

One would think that would increase his threat level and make him one of the likelier players to win the game, with a story of being able to successfully bluff using his idol time and time again and no one actually being able to vote him out. I just don’t think that’s the case, though.

At this point, the reason Xander is hanging around at all is that he’s not viewed as a significant threat. Xander still has effectively no allies and isn’t being a major factor (or really even a factor at all) in strategic conversations happening at camp. And so while I think he feels comfortable skating by until the end of the game, it really becomes a question of “what have you done?”

Because he hasn’t been overpowering the game — he has one immunity win, and for the most part, just hasn’t been important enough for people to go after him. I do think that will change, though.

I still think Xander is comfortably ahead of Liana and Heather in terms of likeliness to win at the end, especially considering his Final 12 Tribal Council performance remains one of the highlights of the season and more impressive than anything Liana or Heather has done so far. And it is for this reason that attention **should** be coming his way immediately.

There are three spots in the Final 3, and I’d imagine the other players want those spots to be filled by themselves, Liana, and Heather to have the best chance of winning. Notice this does not include Xander.

So, Xander has to go at some point. Now, look at the state of the game. Three more people need to be voted out before the Final 4 fire-making challenge (which we assume will take place, although secretly I think we do have a chance of seeing a Final 2 this season for the first time in a long time…), and Xander has an idol that will keep him safe for one of those votes. That means there are a maximum of two opportunities to vote him out, and that’s if he doesn’t win any more individual immunities.

It just seems like Xander has to be targeted at any point that he can be from here on out because he’s someone you can’t rule out winning at the end, even if I personally don’t think it’s terribly likely. Evvie and Tiffany did seem impressed by Xander once again holding onto the idol, so maybe they’re still rooting for him after all.

4. Ricard

I think the main thing that I’m realizing is that Ricard was not in as good a position as I previously thought he was.

I say this because I don’t think taking out Shan was a bad move. It may, in fact, have been necessary for Ricard.

He (probably correctly) believes he can’t defeat Shan at the Final 3. He also knows Shan thinks she can’t beat him at the end. This means that they will both, at some point, try to take each other out, and Ricard needs to strike first.

Shan has an idol, and we’re already at the Final 8. After this vote, she has to know it’s coming soon. This is likely the best chance at a pure blindside.

He could choose to wait another vote or two, but he also knows this makes him expendable. If, say, Erika goes home at the Final 8, the Black players now hold a 4–3 majority and could choose to go to the Final 4 together. Now, maybe they still take Heather to the end, but either way, Ricard becomes the biggest target for that group.

At the very least, a defendable move from Ricard. However, let’s look at the current scenario. When evaluating Deshawn’s position prior to the last episode, I suggested a possible vote split that would have resulted in Shan going home (involving an extra vote and a 3–3–3 vote with 3 votes on Shan and Ricard/Liana…I made a mistake by thinking Deshawn still had his extra vote, but Xander could’ve theoretically used his to make this happen).

In my analysis of this, I said that I worried that Deshawn making that move would make him obviously the biggest target remaining, making it difficult to advance further in the game.

I think Ricard has now run into this same problem. He’s now easily the biggest threat left (plus, Shan even announced that Ricard has her vote after her blindside). Last time, I said that Shan was the most likely person to win at a Final Tribal Council — Ricard is now that person. But while Shan had plenty of close connections and a hidden immunity idol, Ricard has neither of those things.

If I were Ricard, I’d be rallying anyone not named Deshawn or Danny to take out a member of that pair. However, I feel like they gang up on Ricard. In fact, he’s probably the likeliest person to be voted out next.

Still, maybe he is able to find himself a majority. He also has won two immunities already and could win one or two more by the time this is over. I think Ricard is the best strategic player of the season, so I would never count him out. In theory, Ricard/Danny/Deshawn/Liana still have the majority if they can manage to all work together, and in that case, Xander and Erika are on the bottom. Could that happen? I think it’s still very possible. Even then, getting to the end will be an uphill battle.

3. Erika

This is the episode Erika needed. So many things went right.

Shan was eliminated. Not only was she a major threat to win the game, but she was one of the main people trying to eliminate Erika, and her blindside is likely to cause plenty of instability, as Danny and Deshawn now have to repair their relationship with Liana, and Ricard is a major threat likely to be targeted by Danny and Deshawn. Also — Xander still has that idol.

Erika was also the person that orchestrated the plan to split the votes on Shan and Liana and was able to get Danny on board with the plan, which was necessary. Her ability to change the plan to one that didn’t involve her getting voted out should Shan play her idol, and she deserves a lot of credit for that. I said last time that her path to a win likely stemmed from getting credit for Shan’s elimination — she now has a reasonable claim to that.

This last episode improved Erika’s chances of winning the game more than anyone else, and frankly, as Liana and Xander seem to be playing their way out of contention, Erika has emerged as a major threat.

Danny and Deshawn have targeted her in the past and will probably look to do so again (not exactly ideal) but Ricard seems like a far bigger target. Erika’s path to a win seems pretty clear to me (but, of course, easier said than done). She already has Heather — if she can pick up the outsiders of Liana and Xander, that’s a four-person majority that she can ride until the end. The Deshawn/Danny vs Ricard conflict will be irrelevant, because in this scenario, all three would be on the outs.

If Erika is in a Final Tribal Council with any two of Heather/Liana/Xander, I think she wins.

2. Danny

Interesting episode for Danny. In terms of the final result, I do think Danny’s position would probably be better had Shan remained in the game over Erika, but if we assume Shan would beat anyone at the end, then she’s someone that would’ve needed to go eventually.

At this stage of the game, for someone in as comfortable a spot as Danny has been, any time you can get through a vote without being targeted and without increasing your threat level, it can’t be that bad right?

Remarkably, the ex-NFL player whose tribe was so dominant that they never had to go to tribal council in the pre-merge has now reached the Final 7 without a single person bringing up his name as a potential person to be voted out. At this point, it’s kind of expected, but that doesn’t make it any less impressive.

Danny was the person who made the initial push to take out Ricard in this episode, even if Deshawn is the person that was mainly credited with that idea (not bad, considering Ricard now thinks Deshawn was leading that charge). In the last few episodes, we have seen Danny be a much larger force in strategic conversations, and while Deshawn is typically seen as the more strategic member of that duo, I’m inclined to believe it’s much more even than the TV edit would suggest, and that the main difference between them is Deshawn’s more active social game and willingness to entertain bigger moves while Danny is a steadier player.

Danny was the last person to be roped into Shan’s blindside, which isn’t the greatest look, but he was also someone who was close to Shan, making it understandable. Moving forward, the fact of the matter is that Ricard and Deshawn remain larger threats, Xander will receive attention for having an idol, and Erika’s resume is growing as well. I still don’t think anyone is targeting Danny right now.

His path remains getting to the end and being able to say he spent the whole game in the majority and was never targeted, along with being a very likable guy. I still think it would work. He probably loses to Ricard (although in what universe are Ricard and Danny together in the Final 3?) but with how negative Shan appeared to be towards Deshawn, calling him a snake after her blindside, I think Danny even stands a decent chance at beating Deshawn. And if he needs to pull a big move off to take out Deshawn at, say, the Final 5, I think he can do that.

That main issue right now is a lack of allies outside of Deshawn (hopefully for the two of them, they can make amends with Liana), but either way, you’d have to think Danny is safe for at least the next vote.

1. Deshawn

Deshawn’s options are open, and in Survivor, that’s what you want. Shan’s elimination is more detrimental to Danny’s game than Deshawn’s as Deshawn and Shan were already clashing to the point where Deshawn had pitched voting out Ricard and Shan had pitched voting out Deshawn during last episode.

Shan is now out of the game, while Ricard seems to have taken her place as the biggest target remaining. Of course, Deshawn is still a big threat to win the game (he’s #1 in the rankings after all), but he also seems to have more options than just about anyone left.

He has his tight partnership with Danny, and his former alliance-mate in Liana, who should be more willing to take out Ricard now that Shan is gone. If they can get Liana back in the fold, that group could make it through a few votes and potentially to the Final 4 together. Deshawn also has a working relationship with Erika and Heather that he could use (let’s not forget, Luvu now has a 4–3 numbers advantage in the game), and a potential alliance between himself, Danny, and Xander that has been teased but has never really happened yet. Ricard is the only person I don’t see him working with.

Do I wish he had some form of protection moving forward, whether that be an idol or some other advantage? Sure. But Deshawn is someone that seems capable of winning an immunity challenge should he need one, and again, with all of his relationships, getting four people on the same page to vote him out won’t be easy.

Honestly, I think his next target should be either Xander or Erika. Let’s leave Ricard in the game for another vote, at which point everyone left should agree that taking him out is necessary.